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Thursday, November 05, 2009
Divided Electorate
Posted by: Jillian Bandes at 9:55 AM
Politico is reporting that those massive numbers of independents and undecided moderates who swung for Obama in '08 didn't go for Christie and McDonnell on Tuesday. Rather, two separate groups of voters exist.
  • Ones that got really excited about hopenchange and rallied for Obama in 2008.
  • Ones that got really mad at the recent spat of Democratic proposals, and came out to support R's.
The Obama voters mostly stayed in bed this year, and the Republican voters... well, they're not really sure what happened to those in 2008. But one thing is clear: neither of those two groups had very much crossover.

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John writes: Thursday, November, 05, 2009 1:43 PM
Americans realize they screwed
up. The pendulum will now swing the other way. It's as predictable as the sunrise.
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JPK writes: Thursday, November, 05, 2009 11:38 AM
Vlad
Dreeam on. The GOP did well across several regions and demographics. Even in upscale Conneticut, several counties went GOP in local elections.

The GOP swept Va, and dominated that state across several counties that went to Obama by 10% points or more.

What Politico is assuming is that Obama can get out the vote in 2012 like he did in 2008. That is highly dubious. Just ask Jimmy Carter.

Obama went out of his way bigh time in New Jersey, and his stumping couldn't overcome 12% unemployment and the highest property taxes in the nation. Obama has pretty much lost the independents (which put him over the top in 2008. He only won by 7 percentage points). He is about to lose conservative and moderate Democrats in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Illinois. States like Indiana are already lost to Obama. If the Dems prevail on Cap and Trade and ObamaCare, 2010 could be a route.
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vladimir estragon writes: Thursday, November, 05, 2009 11:06 AM
In other words...
"But one thing is clear: neither of those two groups had very much crossover."

So nothing has changed, and the 09 elections don't really have any special meaning for either party. The bloggers and talking heads are just earning their daily bread by emitting more hot air than usual.
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